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7 Jul 2023

NZD/USD approaches 0.6200 as USD Index extends losses, US NFP hogs limelight

  • NZD/USD is marching towards 0.6200 amid an extension in losses in the USD Index.
  • Anxiety among market participants has soared ahead of corporate earnings.
  • The RBNZ will likely keep interest rates unchanged at 5.50% for the rest of the year, marking an end to its 20-month-long hiking cycle.

The NZD/USD pair is approaching the round-level resistance of 0.6200 in the London session. The Kiwi asset has attracted bets as the US Dollar Index (DXY) is under extreme pressure ahead of the United States labor market data.

S&P500 futures have recovered some of their losses in Europe. The overall market mood is still bearish amid an absence of recovery in the US equities after a sheer sell-off on Thursday. Anxiety among market participants has soared ahead of corporate earnings, which are expected to remain volatile due to aggressively restrictive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and tight credit conditions by commercial banks.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has extended its downside to near 102.95 despite hopes of more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve (Fed) have elevated. Higher employment additions in the US labor market in June have drummed up confirmation of further policy-tightening by the Fed in July. Fed chair Jerome Powell has already conveyed that two more interest rate hikes by the year-end are appropriate.

Meanwhile, the entire focus will be on US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. Analysts at TD Securities expect payrolls likely remained above-trend in June, registering a firm 240K gain but the data will still represent slowing vs the still booming 317K expansions, on average, in April-May. Analysts also look for the Unemployment Rate to drop a tenth to 3.6% and for wage growth to print 0.3% MoM.

On the New Zealand Dollar front, investors are hoping that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will hold interest rates at 5.50% next week as the Kiwi economy has already entered into recession. A poll from Reuters showed that the RBNZ will likely keep interest rates unchanged at 5.50% on Wednesday and for the rest of the year, marking an end to its 20-month-long hiking cycle.

 

Jul 7, 2023

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD largely on the defensive going forward, but with support on the downside – HSBC

Economists at HSBC only look for a modest decline in Gold prices this year. Gold prices may remain on the defensive this year Weak exchange-traded fun
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Jul 7, 2023

Some risk of USD ending up lower after NFP, absent a significant topside miss – Scotiabank

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