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27 Sep 2023

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Extends its downside above 1.0550 amid oversold RSI

  • EUR/USD loses traction above the mid-1.0500s; holds below the 50- and 100-hour EMAs. 
  • The oversold RSI condition indicates that further consolidation cannot be ruled out. 
  • The immediate resistance level will emerge at 1.0600; 1.0540 acts as a key support level. 

The EUR/USD pair remains under selling pressure for the seventh consecutive day during the early European session on Wednesday. The pair posts its lowest level since March 16 due to the hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and a sign that the European Central Bank (ECB) could avoid any further rate hikes. The major pair currently trades around 1.0563, losing 0.09% for the day. 

According to the four-hour chart, EUR/USD holds below the 50- and 100-hour Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) with a downward slope, which means the path of least resistance for the pair is to the downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds in bearish territory below 50. However, the oversold condition indicates that further consolidation cannot be ruled out before positioning for any near-term EUR/USD depreciation.

That said, the immediate resistance level for EUR/USD will emerge near a psychological round mark at 1.0600. The additional upside filter is located at 1.0640 (50-hour EMA). The critical barrier to watch is the 1.0675-1.0685 region, representing the confluence of the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band and the 100-hour EMA.

On the downside, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band at 1.0540 acts as a key support level for EUR/USD. Further south, the next stop of the major pair is seen at 1.0515 (a low of March 15). Any follow-through selling below the latter would expose the next downside stop at 1.0460 (a low of December 6, 2022)

EUR/USD four-hour chart

 

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