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6 Oct 2023

USD/JPY Bisa Tepat di Bawah 150 di Pertengahan 2024 Jika Tidak Ada Landing di AS – SocGen

Kit Juckes, Kepala Strategi FX Global di Société Générale, menganalisis prospek EUR/USD dan USD/JPY pada tiga skenario

Hard, Soft, atau Tidak Landing Sama Sekali?

Asumsi kasus dasar, yang mengasumsikan resesi ringan di AS pada pertengahan tahun depan, memprakirakan imbal hasil obligasi Pemerintah 10-tahun akan turun ke 3,7% pada pertengahan tahun depan.

USD/JPY bisa berada tepat di bawah 150 pada pertengahan 2024 jika AS tidak ada landing, di bawah 130 jika ada hard landing, dan tepat di bawah 140 pada kasus dasar kami.

Prakiraan suku bunga kami menyiratkan EUR/USD mencapai 1,15 pada pertengahan tahun 2024 berdasarkan kasus dasar kami untuk prospek ekonomi (resesi ringan), dan 1,02 berdasarkan prakiraan ‘tanpa resesi’. Hard landing mengaburkan prospek karena reaksi awalnya adalah hubungan antara EUR/USD dan suku bunga akan terputus, untuk sementara.

Oct 6, 2023

Pertumbuhan Pinjaman Bank India September 25 Naik Ke 20% Dari Sebelumnya 19.8%

USD/CAD Meluncur Menuju 1,3700 karena Loonie Melonjak Setelah Laporan Tenaga Kerja Kanada yang Optimis

USD/CAD naik ke 1,3745 setelah rilis data pasar tenaga kerja AS dan Kanada dan kemudian berbalik arah, pullback ke area 1,3700. Dampak positif dari da