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27 Dec 2023

USD/CHF holds below 0.8550 on heightened risk aversion, SNB to adopt a proactive approach

  • USD/CHF remains below 0.8550 as risk aversion increases the safe-haven CHF demand.
  • Shipping firms to return to the Red Sea despite Iran’s threat to close the Gibraltar Strait.
  • Former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan expects the Fed not to become overly restrictive.

USD/CHF pair is relatively quiet, hovering around 0.8540 during the early European hours on Wednesday. Heightened risk aversion seems to lead to the increased demand for safe-haven currencies like the Swiss Franc (CHF).

There are concerns about Iran potentially closing the Gibraltar Strait, many doubt the feasibility of such an action. However, major shipping firms have started to return to the Red Sea, indicating a tentative normalization with the deployment of a multinational task force in the region.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is poised to adopt a proactive approach, as revealed in its recent Quarterly Bulletin. The SNB has communicated its readiness to intervene actively in the foreign exchange market when deemed necessary. This signals a hawkish stance, indicating the bank's commitment to managing currency dynamics and supporting the Swiss Franc (CHF).

The US Dollar Index (DXY) moves above 101.50 amid 2-year and 10-year yields on US bond coupons are trading lower, standing at 4.29% and 3.87%, respectively, by the press time. This decline in yields contributes to the overall subdued performance of the US Dollar (USD) in the market.

Former Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan's sentiments align with the notion that the central bank is treading cautiously. Kaplan emphasizes the Federal Reserve's historical mistake of maintaining prolonged excessive accommodation even as the economy improved. According to Kaplan, the central bank is now exercising caution to avoid a similar error on the flip side, being mindful not to become overly restrictive.

The upcoming Thursday holds the promise of valuable insights into the economic landscape as the United States (US) is scheduled to release Initial Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales data. These indicators play a crucial role in understanding the health of the labor market and the real estate sector, providing investors with essential information for assessing the overall economic condition.

 

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