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29 Dec 2023

USD/CHF experiences downward pressure on improved sentiment, trades around 0.8430

  • USD/CHF trades lower as the Greenback weakens on improved risk appetite.
  • Lower US bond yields indicate a strong bias toward easing of Fed’s tightening.
  • Swiss Franc gains ground on heightened risk aversion due to Middle East conflict.

USD/CHF receives downward support due to the weaker US Dollar (USD), which could be attributed to the lower US Treasury yields. The market bias toward the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce interest rates in the first quarter of 2024 is putting pressure on the US yields. The USD/CHF pair trades lower around 0.8430 during the Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar Index (DXY) bids lower near 101.10, with the 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury notes standing lower at 4.26% and 3.84%, respectively, by the press time.

Additionally, softer economic data from the United States (US) could have diminished the strength of the Greenback as it reinforces the market bias toward the Fed’s dovish stance in the upcoming policy meetings. US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 218K for the week ending December 23, exceeding the market's projection of 210K. Additionally, Pending Home Sales (MoM) for November came in flat 0.0% compared to the anticipated growth of 1.0% from the previous decline of 1.2%. The upcoming Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December, is set to be released on Friday. The report is expected to print a reading of 51, lower than the previous 55.8 figures.

The ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is fueling heightened risk aversion, leading to an increased demand for the safe-haven Swiss Franc (CHF). Concerns linger about the potential closure of the Gibraltar Strait by Iran, adding a layer of caution to the overall situation. Despite this, the return of major shipping firms to the Red Sea suggests a tentative move towards normalization.

ZEW Survey – Expectations fell by 23.7 points in December against the 29.6 decline in November. KOF Leading Indicator is set to be released on Friday, expected to improve from 96.7 to 97.0. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) seems set to take a proactive stance, as outlined in its recent Quarterly Bulletin. The bank has expressed its preparedness to actively intervene in the foreign exchange market to support the Swiss Franc (CHF).

 

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