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9 Jan 2024

EUR/USD falls back from 1.0980, reverses Monday’s early rise on broad-market Greenback selloff

  • The Euro rose in early Monday trading on rising market sentiment.
  • Eurozone economic data managed to mostly beat already-low expectations.
  • EU unemployment on the docket for Tuesday.

The EUR/USD climbed on Monday, falling just short of 1.0980 before sliding back into 1.0950 in a consolidation pattern that is becoming familiar in the early stages of 2024.

Eurozone Retail Sales for the year through November declined less than expected, falling 1.1% versus the forecast 1.5% decline, compared to October’s YoY figure of -0.8% (revised upwards from -1.2%).

The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence index for January rebounded from -16.8 to -15.8, while the Eurozone Consumer Confidence survey index unexpectedly rose from -15.1 to -15.0, versus the market forecast for a steady hold at -15.1.

Eurozone Retail Sales for November also slid exactly as much as investors were expecting, printing at -0.3% compared to October’s print of 0.4% (revised upwards from 0.1%).

Tuesday will see an update on the Eurozone Unemployment Rate for November, which is forecast to hold steady at 6.5%, while broader markets will be focused on Thursday’s upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation print.

Thursday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation print is expected to show slight declines in the near-term core figures, but annualized headline inflation continues to prove sticky, with the CPI for the year through December forecast to tick upwards slightly from 3.1% to 3.2%. Core YoY CPI, meanwhile, is forecast to slip from 4% to 3.8%, and December’s MoM Core CPI is expected to hold steady at 0.3%.

Markets will be looking for signs that inflation will continue to ease, with some investor hopefuls looking for an increasing pace in the reduction of price growth, in order to push the Federal Reserve (Fed) into the next rate cutting cycle sooner rather than later.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD rose into 1.0980 on Monday, falling just short of the near-term level and sliding back towards 1.0950 as the pair struggles in near-term consolidation. Intraday action continues to get capped under the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near the 1.1000 major handle.

A bullish crossover of the 50-day and 200-day SMAs near 1.0850 is building out a technical floor beneath daily candlesticks, and the near-term ceiling is parked at December’s swing high just shy of 1.1150.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Technical Levels

 

Jan 8, 2024

EUR/GBP Price Analysis: Bears halt bulls movements, further downside on the horizon

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Jan 9, 2024

Fed's Bowman: Further inflation declines possible without more rate hikes

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