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11 Jan 2024

Inflation improvement in 2024 will allow ECB and Fed to ease – ANZ

Economists at ANZ Bank analyze Fed and ECB outlook in a year of transition.

ECB will start cutting rates this European spring

Our core view is there will be sufficient progress on inflation towards target in both the US and Euro Area this year for the Fed and ECB to start cutting interest rates.

We think the conditions for ECB rate cuts will be in place from the European spring. In the US, we acknowledge recent low inflation prints but still think it will be the northern hemisphere summer before the FOMC will feel sufficiently confident to cut rates.

We forecast the FOMC will cut the target for fed funds by 100 bps taking the fed funds ceiling to 4.50% by year-end. We forecast the ECB will cut key policy rates by 150 bps by year-end.

Jan 11, 2024

Forex Today: US Dollar struggles to find demand as focus shifts to inflation data

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, January 11: The US Dollar (USD) stays on the back foot early Thursday, with the USD Index retreating toward 102.00 after closing in negative territory on Wednesday.

USD/MXN moves lower to 16.95 as sentiment improves on speculation of Fed rate cuts

USD/MXN halts its two-day winning streak, which could be attributed to the improved risk appetite as traders price in the possibility of five rate cuts in 2024.