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24 Jan 2024

USD/JPY plunges to near 147.50 on speculation of Fed rate cuts in March, US PMI data eyed

  • USD/JPY loses ground on speculation of Fed interest rate cuts in March.
  • The better-than-expected Japan’s data might have supported the JPY.
  • US Dollar faces challenges due to the downbeat US yields and improved risk appetite.

The USD/JPY pair experiences a downward trend as market confidence is restored, driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve will start implementing interest rate cuts in March. Currently, the probability of this scenario is priced at around 50:50, indicating uncertainty among market participants. The USD/JPY pair trades lower near 147.50 during the European session on Wednesday.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to maintain its current interest rates and yield curve control policy during its recent meeting on Tuesday. However, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled a strong commitment to achieving the 2.0% inflation target. Ueda's remarks suggested that the conditions necessary for gradually phasing out extensive stimulus measures and moving short-term interest rates out of negative territory were aligning.

Additionally, the better-than-expected Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance Total for December was released by the Ministry of Finance on Wednesday. The report printed the figure of ¥62.1B against the expected ¥-122.1B and the previous figure of ¥-780.4B. While Japanese Exports (YoY) rose to 9.8% from the previous decline of 0.2%. These improved readings might have provided support to underpinning the Japanese Yen (JPY), which in turn, acts as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair.

On the other side, the US Dollar faces challenges due to the downward movement in the bond market and improved risk appetite. The US Dollar Index (DXY) edges lower to near the 103.10 level with the 2-year and 10-year yields on US bond coupons standing at 4.32% and 4.10%, respectively, by the press time. Looking forward, market participants are expected to keenly observe the release of the S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from the United States (US) scheduled for Wednesday.

 

Jan 24, 2024

USD/JPY: The US economy and the Fed will determine if the downside gains traction – SocGen

USD/JPY is pegged back below 148.00 on higher JGB yields. Economists at Société Générale analyze the pair’s outlook.
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Jan 24, 2024

Oil stuck in a rut with OPEC and Red Sea not enough

Oil prices are going nowhere, despite the small uptick near $75, proving that the current Oil production cuts from OPEC+ are simply not enough.
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