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26 Jan 2024

The threat of intervention will slowly increase if USD/JPY continues to drift higher towards 150.00 – MUFG

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is roughly unchanged today reflecting the broader limited moves in the FX markets. Economists at MUFG Bank analyze USD/JPY outlook.

April seems too far ahead to discourage Yen selling

There was a surprisingly large drop in the Tokyo inflation data with the headline YoY rate falling from 2.4% in December to 1.6% in January. The core-core rate fell from 3.5% to 3.1%. The declines were 0.4ppt and 0.3ppt more than expected and could raise doubts over the BoJ’s potential plans to hike the key policy rate in April. Still, the base effects should be more supportive for inflation remaining higher over the coming months given the gas and electricity subsidies were introduced in Q1 2023 which helped depress inflation.

Given our near-term bias for the US Dollar to strengthen and given the larger-than-expected drop in the inflation data, we may in turn see some increased appetite for Yen-funded carry positions that help fuel a further rise in USD/JPY. 

April seems too far ahead to discourage Yen selling although the threat of intervention will slowly increase if spot continues to drift higher to the 150.00 level.

 

Jan 26, 2024

Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD rally stalls near $23 as focus shifts to US core PCE data

Silver price (XAG/USD) struggles to extend upside above the crucial resistance of $23.00.
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Jan 26, 2024

GBP/JPY lacks a firm intraday direction, manages to hold steady above mid-187.00s

The GBP/JPY cross remains on the defensive for the fourth successive day on Friday, albeit lacks follow-through selling and remains confined in the previous day's broader trading range through the first half of the European session.
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