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26 Jan 2024

NZD/USD moves below 0.6100 ahead of the US PCE Price Index data

  • NZD/USD moves on a downward trajectory after the stronger US GDP figures.
  • Traders await US PCE data to gain cues regarding the Fed’s policy decision in March’s meeting.
  • NZD could gain ground as Kiwi consumer inflation remains above the RBNZ target range of 1.0% to 3.0%.

NZD/USD moves downward to near 0.6100, extending its losses for the second successive day during European hours on Friday. The stronger United States (US) GDP Annualized provided support for the US Dollar (USD), which in turn, undermines the NZD/USD pair.

Market participants are expected to closely monitor the upcoming release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data on Friday. This data will provide insights into US economic conditions, influencing considerations for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy decision in the March meeting. Besides, the markets have already factored in the probability of no policy adjustment by the Fed in the upcoming meeting on January 31.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Louise Yellen has stated that the robust Q4 GDP data is attributed to robust and healthy spending, accompanied by enhancements in productivity. Yellen underscores that the GDP report does not suggest any imminent threats to the possibility of a 'soft landing' scenario for the US economy.

On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the Kiwi showed a decline from the previous figures, aligning with market expectations. Despite the decrease, consumer inflation remains above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) target range of 1.0% to 3.0%. This diminishes the likelihood of an immediate interest rate cut by the RBNZ in February's meeting.

Consequently, the diminished chances of RBNZ’s interest rate cuts could mitigate the downside pressure on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), providing support for the NZD/USD pair. Traders are anticipated to look for insights into the country's exports and imports situation through the upcoming Trade Balance NZD data scheduled for Monday.

 

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