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26 Jan 2024

EUR/CHF seen at at 0.9300 in 6-12M – Danske Bank

EUR/CHF reached the lowest level since 2015 by the end of December, breaching below the 0.9300 mark. Economists at Danske Bank analyze the pair’s outlook.

SNB to deliver its first 25 bps cut in June

We expect the SNB to deliver its first 25 bps cut in June but see risks tilted towards earlier. Overall, we see relative rates as fairly neutral for the cross. We no longer expect the SNB to intervene to strengthen the CHF.

We remain bullish on the CHF on the back of fundamentals and a global growth slowdown but acknowledge that the tailwinds will likely be more modest in 2024 than in 2023 given both the halt to FX intervention and smaller inflation differentials between Switzerland and G10 space. We target the cross at 0.9300 in 6-12M.

Risks to the forecast include a sharp reacceleration in global growth and SNB FX intervention to weaken the CHF.

Jan 26, 2024

Gold price awaits US core PCE data for fresh guidance

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains stuck in a tight range as investors await the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (PCE) for December, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.

USD to become more attractive as the gap between US GDP and other currency areas widens – Commerzbank

On Thursday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis published the figures for the US GDP in Q4/2023.