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12 Feb 2024

The Dollar is facing some downside risks this week – ING

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has eased back modestly over the past week after trading at its 2024 highest. Economists at ING analyze Greenback’s outlook.

A weak retail sales print may take the Dollar lower

This week, the US CPI release on Tuesday can be the new catalyst for larger positioning shifts in FX. Our economics team estimates are aligned with consensus for a 0.3% month-on-month core print, but we think the risks are skewed more towards a 0.2% than a 0.4% print. Accordingly, there are some downside risks for the Dollar, even though our base case is for a consensus print to leave few marks on the FX market.

A weak retail sales print on Thursday may revamp expectations for a May rate cut, and take the Dollar lower. That said, evidence for the jobs market and the lack of faster disinflation should still be enough to discourage aggressive Dollar selling. 

We remain comfortable with our call for some extra resilience in the Dollar in the first quarter, before a clearer downtrend emerges from the second quarter.

 

Feb 12, 2024

USD/MXN extends losses to near 17.07 ahead of US CPI data on Tuesday

USD/MXN continues to decline for the second consecutive session, trading at around 17.07 during the European session on Monday.
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Feb 12, 2024

USD/CAD Price Analysis: Struggles for a firm intraday direction, remains below 200-day SMA

The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on Friday's bounce from the 1.3415-1.3410 area or a one-week low and oscillates in a narrow range through the early European session on the first day of a new week.
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