Confirming you are not from the U.S. or the Philippines

By giving this statement, I explicitly declare and confirm that:
  • I am not a U.S. citizen or resident
  • I am not a resident of the Philippines
  • I do not directly or indirectly own more than 10% of shares/voting rights/interest of the U.S. residents and/or do not control U.S. citizens or residents by other means
  • I am not under the direct or indirect ownership of more than 10% of shares/voting rights/interest and/or under the control of U.S. citizen or resident exercised by other means
  • I am not affiliated with U.S. citizens or residents in terms of Section 1504(a) of FATCA
  • I am aware of my liability for making a false declaration.
For the purposes of this statement, all U.S. dependent countries and territories are equalled to the main territory of the USA. I accept full responsibility for the accuracy of this declaration and commit to personally address and resolve any claims or issues that may arise from a breach of this statement.
Cancel Confirm
We are dedicated to your privacy and the security of your personal information. We only collect emails to provide special offers and important information about our products and services. By submitting your email address, you agree to receive such letters from us. If you want to unsubscribe or have any questions or concerns, write to our Customer Support.
Confirm
Octa trading broker Sign up Log in
Octa trading broker
Open trading account
Trading news
Back
4 Dec 2024

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Ascending Triangle breakout keep upside trend afloat

  • USD/CAD climbs to near 1.4075 ahead of key US data and Fed Powell’s speech.
  • Investors should brace for volatility in the CAD as the employmnet data for November is set to release on Friday.
  • USD/CAD holds the Ascending Trinagle breakout, suggesting more upside ahead.

The USD/CAD pair extends its winning streak for the third trading day on Wednesday. The Loonie pair moves higher to near 1.4075 as the US Dollar (USD) gains ahead of United States (US) economic data for November, including ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI, and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech in the North American session.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, climbs around 106.60.

Investors will pay close attention to the Jerome Powell’s speech at at the New York Times DealBook Summit to get fresh cues about whether the central bank will cut interest rates again in its policy meeting on December 18. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 74% chance that the Fed will reduce its key borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50%, while the rest favors leaving them unchanged at their current levels.

This week, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) will be influenced by the labor market data for November, which will be released on Friday, along with US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).

USD/CAD holds the breakout of the Ascending Triangle chart pattern formed on a weekly timeframe. The outlook of the Loonie pair remains firm as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3820 is sloping higher.

The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates above 60.00, suggesting a strong bullish momentum.

A fresh upside would appear if the asset breaks above November’s high of 1.4178. The scenario will pave the way for the April 2020 high of 1.4265 and the round-level resistance of 1.4300.

On the contrary, a downside move below the October 29 low of 1.3875 will expose the asset to the October 15 high near 1.3840, followed by the round-level figure of 1.3800.

USD/CAD weekly chart

Economic Indicator

Net Change in Employment

The Net Change in Employment released by Statistics Canada is a measure of the change in the number of people in employment in Canada. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and indicates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Read more.

Next release: Fri Dec 06, 2024 13:30

Frequency: Monthly

Consensus: 25K

Previous: 14.5K

Source: Statistics Canada

Canada’s labor market statistics tend to have a significant impact on the Canadian dollar, with the Employment Change figure carrying most of the weight. There is a significant correlation between the amount of people working and consumption, which impacts inflation and the Bank of Canada’s rate decisions, in turn moving the C$. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be CAD bullish, with currency markets usually reacting steadily and consistently in response to the publication.

 

Dec 4, 2024

USD/JPY: Bearish momentum on daily chart intact – OCBC

USD/JPY traded a low of 148.65 overnight on safe-haven demand, and was last seen at 150.73 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Read more Previous
Dec 4, 2024

USD/JPY: Must break and close below 148.65 to continue to declining – UOB Group

To continue to decline, the US Dollar (USD) must break and close below 148.65, which is acting as a significant support level now, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.
Read more Next