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12 Dec 2024

USD/CNH: 2-day CEWC meeting wraps up today – OCBC

USD/CNH rose yesterday after a Reuters report said that China’s top leaders and policymakers are considering allowing the RMB to weaken in 2025 as they brace for tariffs. But the pair fell today after daily USD/CNY fix continue to be set below 7.20. USD/CNH was last at 7.2668 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Risks remain skewed to the downside

“We expect policymakers to continue using the fix to manage RMB expectations for now until tariff hits (if any). In the interim, we would keep a look out for the China’s CEWC meeting which wraps up today. Expectations are building up for stimulus support after politburo vowed to stabilise property and stock markets.”

“Officials also pledged to ramp up ‘extraordinary counter-cyclical policy adjustment’ to support the economy. Follow-up policy action is crucial, and bear in mind markets are impatient. We caution that any delay in concrete policy action may setup a case for disappointment (again). An unwinding of politburo optimism may weigh further on other Asian FX such as KRW, SGD and MYR.”

Daily momentum is bearish while RSI fell. Risks remain skewed to the downside. Support at 7.26 (21 DMA), 7.2340 (23.6% fibo retracement of Sep low to Dec high) and 7.2040 (200 DMA). Resistance at 7.27, 7.2940 levels.

Dec 12, 2024

CEE: ECB as a downside risk for the region – ING

The region switched to muted mode with a quiet calendar in the second half of the week, ING’s FX analyst Frantisek Taborsky notes.
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Dec 12, 2024

BRL: The central bank strikes back – ING

Brazil's central bank, BCB, aggressively hiked rates by 100bp to 12.25% last night and promised two further hikes of a similar magnitude, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
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