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18 Dec 2024

GBP/JPY ticks lower below 195.00 after UK CPI data, BoJ-BoE policy in focus

  • GBP/JPY edges lower despite an expected increase in the UK inflation boosts expectations for the BoE to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday.
  • UK annual headline and core CPI rose by 2.6% and 3.5%, respectively.
  • The BoJ is unlikely to raise interest rates on Thursday.

The GBP/JPY pair edges lower below 195.00 in Wednesday’s European session. The cross drops after the release of the United Kingdom (UK) inflation data for November, which showed that price pressures grew in line with estimates.

As measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), UK annual headline inflation rose by 2.6%, as expected, faster than 2.3% in October. Month-on-month headline CPI grew 0.1%, in line with estimates but slower than the former release of 0.4%. The core CPI – which excludes a few volatile items – grew at a faster pace of 3.5% than the former reading of 3.3% but slower than estimates of 3.6%.

An expected growth in the UK inflation adds to evidence that the Bank of England (BoE) will leave interest rates unchanged at 4.75% in the policy meeting on Thursday. According to market expectations, eight members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) are expected to vote for keeping interest rates at their current levels. While one policymaker Swati Dhingra will vote for cutting borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.50%.

Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) exhibits a muted price action as investors await the outcome of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy meeting on Thursday. The BoJ is expected to leave interest rates at 0.25%. Investors will pay close attention to BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference to know about whether and how much the central bank will raise key borrowing rates in 2025.

Investors will also look for cues about the likely impact of incoming tariff hikes by United States (US) President-elect Donald Trump on the economy.

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