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19 Dec 2024

USD: Hawkish Fed sends USD spiking – ING

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25bp as expected yesterday, but the broader policy message was more hawkish than expected. The new dot plot projections were heavily revised, now only factoring in 50bp of additional easing in 2025, and one FOMC member voted for a hold, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

USD to strengthen into the new year

“Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed will be more cautious moving on and that more progress on inflation is needed for further cuts. Remember, the dovish shift by the Fed a few months ago was triggered by concerns about the jobs market. Yesterday, Powell said the risks to the labour market had diminished, effectively removing any sense of urgency when it comes to easing.”

“The bear flattening in the US curve pushed the dollar to new highs. DXY is trading at 108.0 and we think this hawkish re-tuning of the Fed’s communication will lay the foundation for sustained dollar strengthening into the new year. Markets are fully expecting a hold in January and 11bp are priced in for March.”

“If indeed the dot plot works as a benchmark for rate expectations for the next three months, the bar for a data surprise to seriously threaten the dollar’s big rate advantage is set higher.”

Dec 19, 2024

Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (2.5%)

Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (2.5%)
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Dec 19, 2024

USD: Pause in rate cuts may come as early as January – OCBC

FOMC decision to cut the target range of the Fed funds rate by 25bps to 4.25-4.50% was not unanimous, with one member voting for a hold, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
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