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EUR: Looking for a lifeline – ING

EUR/USD recovered some ground on Friday, in line with our expectations. From a valuation standpoint, there is still short-term upside potential for the pair, which at current levels embeds a risk premium of around 1.5-2.0%, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Risks remain skewed towards the 1.02 area

“The effect of the moderately re-tightened EUR:USD short-term swap spread may, however, prove insufficient to drive the euro back to the 1.040 mark sustainably. We suspect that unless there are some tentatively positive developments in the eurozone growth narrative, any EUR/USD rebound is destined to be quite short-lived, and risks over the coming weeks remain skewed towards the 1.02 area.”

“The recent rise in gas prices after the Ukraine pipeline shutdown is currently pairing with protectionism fears, and any lifeline to the euro at this point would likely need to come from data.”

 

EUR/USD: Dead cat bounce? – OCBC

Euro (EUR) fell to a low of 1.0225 (2 Jan) before rebounding. The large slippage was likely due to poor market liquidity. Pair was last seen trading at 1.0353 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
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Euro extends recovery as markets digest political turmoil

The Euro is setting forth a second day of recovery and trades above 1.0350 at the time of writing on Monday, heading further away from the fresh 2-year low of 1.0224 seen on Thursday.
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