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19 Feb 2025

USD/JPY: Tentative buildup in downward momentum – UOB Group

Price movements are likely part of a 151.40/152.50 range trading phase. In the longer run, there has been a tentative buildup in downward momentum; USD must break and remain below 151.00 before further weakness is likely, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Below 151.00, further weakness is likely

24-HOUR VIEW: "When USD was at 151.45 yesterday, we noted 'a tentative buildup in downward momentum.' We indicated that USD 'could edge below 151.00, but it remains to be seen if it can maintain a foothold below this level.' Our view was incorrect, as USD rebounded to 152.22 before closing at 152.05 (+0.36%). The current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, expected to be within a 151.40/152.50 range."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We continue to hold the same view as yesterday (18 Feb, spot at 151.45). As indicated, 'there has been a tentative buildup in downward momentum, but USD must break and remain below 151.00 before further weakness can be expected.' The likelihood of USD breaking clearly below 151.00 will remain intact, provided that 152.75 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level from yesterday) is not breached."

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