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21 Mar 2025

USD: Data-light days can be good for the dollar – ING

The dollar had another good session yesterday and stayed bid overnight. There was no clear catalyst in data or market events, and the USD rebound seems to be more related to the unwinding of short positions ahead of US tariffs being implemented on 2 April, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Empty US data calendar provides better opportunities for the greenback

"Coincidentally, European equities have lagged US stocks this week – a rare occurrence lately. Likely contributing to that is the more tepid optimism on an imminent Russia-Ukraine truce after high-level talks this week only yielded a halt to energy infrastructure strikes."

"Our preference is to chase the dollar rebound at this stage, but we admit that data can easily get in the way. Yesterday, the US Conference Board Leading Index came in just below consensus at -0.3% month-on-month, a soft print but not as alarming as other indicators. At the same time, there is still very little evidence from jobless claims of stress in the labour market."

"The US data calendar is empty today. A day without key data may offer better opportunities for the greenback to keep recovering ground. The Federal Reserve's blackout period is also officially over, and the cautious tone struck by the FOMC and Chair Jerome Powell this week likely leaves decent room for post-meeting tweaks in communication. Those should mostly come after new data has been released, but we’ll still keep a close eye on the dovish-leaning Austan Goolsbee's interview with CNBC today."

Mar 21, 2025

Russia Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (21%)

Russia Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (21%)
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Mar 21, 2025

EUR/CHF: Risks skewed to the downside for both the inflation and growth outlook – Danske Bank

EUR/CHF ended the day broadly unchanged after the SNB delivered a 25bp cut, bringing the policy rate to 0.25%, Danske Bank's FX analysts Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt and Filip Andersson report.
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