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17 Apr 2025

Little reason for the ECB to surprise us with a hawkish stance – Commerzbank

Today's ECB decision will be the highlight of the trading week. After the market briefly doubted that there would be another rate cut today, such a move is now almost fully priced in, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.

Little reason for the ECB to surprise with a hawkish stance

"The ECB tends not to be swayed by such events and tends to change its stance slowly. In addition, the strong appreciation of the euro since the last rate decision and the risk of a flood of cheap Chinese goods into Europe reduce inflation risks somewhat. As a result, there is little reason for the ECB to surprise with a hawkish stance."

"Things are likely to get more exciting when it comes to guidance for the upcoming meetings. If ECB President Christine Lagarde hints at the following press conference that the Governing Council is now more convinced that it is best to wait and see how the trade war unfolds, the euro could regain some ground."

"However, I think such a scenario is unlikely. Lagarde will probably want to keep all options open, and the euro's behaviour will mainly depend on the wording used. However, given the factors that argue against a hawkish surprise, the risks are likely to be skewed towards a weaker euro."

Apr 17, 2025

EUR: Consensus cut, no guidance by ECB – ING

We expect a 25bp rate cut by the ECB today. Consensus is unanimous, and markets are fully pricing in the move, so the impact on the euro may prove limited, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
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Apr 17, 2025

USD: Powell rejects rescuer role – ING

Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered the clearest message since 'liberation day' yesterday, which was unquestionably hawkish, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
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