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17 Apr 2025

NZD: Renewed rise in inflation not a problem – Commerzbank

In New Zealand, a CPI indicator is published every month, but these monthly figures only cover the prices of around 44% of the basket of goods and services, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

RBNZ still seen cutting in May despite rising momentum

"The full set of inflation data is still only available once a quarter. And this morning the figures for Q1 were published. At 0.9% quarter-on-quarter, the rate of price increases was slightly higher than the median forecast of analysts. However, the annual rate rose only slightly from 2.2% to 2.5%, which is right in the middle of the RBNZ's target range."

"On a more positive note, the annual rate for services eased back to 4.2% (from 4.8% in the previous quarter), closer to the central bank's target. However, it must also be said that the annualised quarterly rates are above the central bank's target and that inflation momentum seems to have picked up recently."

"This should still give the central bank room to cut rates again at the end of May, as I expect. However, it must also be said that the six weeks until the next central bank meeting is quite a long time in the current international environment. As a result, the Kiwi has been trading very cautious this morning and has not shown much movement."

Apr 17, 2025

Powell flags trade tariff risks, signals cuts still in play – UBS

Federal Reserve Chair Powell noted US President Trump’s trade taxes would raise inflation and lower economic growth. Markets have already worked this out, but Powell saying it has policy implications.
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Apr 17, 2025

USD: JPY weakens on trade deal optimism – MUFG

The US Dollar (USD) weakened into the close of trading on Wednesday but has rebounded helped in part by optimism over the pace in which the US might be willing to reach deals with key trading partners.
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