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24 Apr 2025

Energy: OPEC+ struggles – ING

While a risk-on move lifted most risk assets yesterday, oil was left behind thanks to OPEC+ discord. ICE Brent settled almost 2% lower on the day amid concerns about aggressive supply hikes from OPEC+. This comes after Kazakhstan said that it’s unable to lower oil output and plans to prioritise domestic interests over OPEC+ obligations, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

OPEC+ members are pushing for aggressive supply hikes in June

"Kazakhstan has been pumping well above its production target following an expansion project at the Tengiz field. This led to reports that other OPEC+ members are pushing for aggressive supply hikes in June. Earlier this month, OPEC+ surprised the market by increasing supply by 411k b/d in May, more than the 138k b/d planned. This larger-than-expected increase comes as demand estimates are being cut amid ongoing trade tensions. Further disagreement between OPEC+ members is a clear downside risk, as it could lead to a price war."

"However, the prompt ICE Brent timspread remains well supported. It’s trading at a backwardation of near US$1/bbl, suggesting tightness in the spot market. Energy Information Administration data yesterday showed a modest increase in crude oil inventories, with stocks growing by 244k barrels over the last week."

"This was significantly at odds with the 4.75m barrel decline that the American Petroleum Institute reported the previous day. Inventory changes for refined products were more constructive, with gasoline and distillate stocks falling by 4.48m barrels and 2.35m barrels, respectively. The move was driven by stronger implied demand as gasoline demand increased by 952k b/d week on week. Gasoline inventories have fallen for eight consecutive weeks, leaving them at the lowest level since December. The RBOB crack moved higher on the back of this release."

Apr 24, 2025

EUR: Don't dismiss downside potential – ING

As investors breathe a sigh of relief after Trump reassured them he is not seeking to remove Fed Chair Powell, the upside potential for EUR/USD has shrunk, EUR/USD has more room to fall, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
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Apr 24, 2025

USD: Does Bessent care about a dollar rebound? – ING

The dollar recovery is extending thanks to a broader de-escalation by the Trump administration on both US protectionism and Fed independence.
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