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25 Apr 2025

EUR/USD: Corrective pullback underway – OCBC

Euro (EUR) continued to ease lower after hitting a more than 3Y high of 1.1570s. EUR was last at 1.1350 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Risks skewed to the downside

"De-escalation in tariff angst is helping stretched market moves to normalise. To add, ECB officials turned more dovish. ECB’s Rehn said that the ECB should keep lowering interest rates at its next meeting in June if forecasts show Eurozone inflation falling below the ECB’s 2% target. He also said that the ECB should not rule out larger interest rate cuts."

"ECB Chief Economist Lane said that there is no reason to say that a 25bp move is always the default, although he would not pre-commit to any rate path. Separately, the ECB is considering to change its monetary policy strategy to enable more nimble responses to price shocks as the global environment becomes increasingly volatile. This will be discussed at an informal retreat on 6-7 May in Portugal."

"Bullish momentum on daily chart is fading while RSI fell. Risks skewed to the downside. Support at 1.1290 before 1.1235 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 low to high) and 1.1160 (21 DMA). Resistance at 1.1410, 1.1570 (recent high)."

Apr 25, 2025

USD: Some modest retracement – ING

The dollar is continuing its positive correlation with US equity markets and is edging higher. Investors seem to be taking positively the newsflow that US-China tariffs could be negotiated substantially lower.
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Apr 25, 2025

EUR: 1.1250 is the risk for EUR/USD – ING

The very modest dollar bounce has seen EUR/USD trade a little lower.
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