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25 Apr 2025

USD: So far, importers seem to be footing the bill – Commerzbank

As US-China tariff tensions escalate, early data suggest US importers are shouldering most of the burden, with little price relief from Chinese exporters. Despite sharp tariff hikes, consumer prices remain largely unaffected — for now. But pressure is building, and both sides may soon be forced back to the negotiating table, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

US importers absorb costs as China holds firm

"As most of the escalation in bilateral tariffs took place after 2 April, there is currently no monthly economic data available on the impact on foreign trade and in particular on US import prices. However, the US already raised its tariffs on Chinese imports by 10 percentage points in February and again in March. Data are already available for this period."

"According to these data, prices for US imports from China fell by only 0.3% between January and March, showing no impact at all from the US tariffs. This would imply that US importers had to pay the increased tariff and were unable to negotiate price concessions from their suppliers in China in return."

"It is therefore likely that importers have absorbed the price increases for the time being, hoping that the tariffs will be lowered again and that larger price increases to consumers can be avoided. If this were the case, it would also explain why resistance is now growing."

Apr 25, 2025

DXY: Technical rebound is under way – OCBC

Relative calm continues to be observed this week amid Trump’s de-escalation. Trump continued to speak about how his administration was talking to China about trade even as Beijing denied the existence of negotiations.
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Apr 25, 2025

RUB: CBR likely to signal rate cuts before end of year – Commerzbank

Russia’s central bank (CBR) will announce its rate decision today: analysts unanimously expect an unchanged key rate of 21.0%, which has been pre-signalled by policymakers.
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