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3 Jun 2015

G10 FX: EUR/SEK topside favoured – DB

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Oliver Harvey, Macro strategist at Deutsche Bank, ranks G10 FX using technicals on the basis of favourability of trade, noting that USD/JPY and NZD/USD are stretched while EUR/SEK looks attractive.

Key Quotes

“USD/JPY is the top technical currency pair in G10. It is the most trending cross and breaking new ground to the upside. It is also not volatile from a realized vol perspective although implied vol is high. However, while it is not stretched from a risk reversal perspective, it is extremely stretched from an RSI perspective, in the 2 percentile of stretchiness.”

“Similarly, NZD/USD is trending (87th percentile) and breaking new ground (98th percentile) but looks a little stretched.”

“EUR/SEK looks attractive (to the topside). The cross is trending (in the 90th VHF percentile) but is not stretched from either an RSI or risk reversal point of view.”

“USD/CAD is also highly trending to the upside, in addition to being least volatile as per realized volatility. It is not yet at extreme levels of stretchiness.”
Jun 3, 2015

Japanese policy makers unlikely to change the trend of JPY weakness – Nomura

According to Yujiro Goto, FX Strategist at Nomura, Japanese policy makers are unlikely to change the JPY weakness trend, and USD/JPY will likely remain a buy on dips as margin traders have increased their long positions on the pair.
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Jun 3, 2015

FX option expiry’s for today

Expiry’s for today at 10am NY cut.
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