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16 Jan 2018

WTI: turning away from three year highs, but DXY sold-off, stocks bullish

WTI has taken hit on the dollar's reprieve that is broadly firmer against the majors in the FX space as the US returns from holidays. 

WTI crude was up over +0.3% to US$64.69bbl yesterday, the highest in over two years. Looking around, the Loonie is flexing its muscles while US stocks are consolidating after reaching fresh all-time highs with the DJIA through 26,000 for the first time and the S&P getting through 2,800. 

Markets are positioning on the bid within a risk-on environment, USD/JPY started to stabilise overnight with a bounce from in the 110.30's with a look in at the 111 handle while the BOJ's Kuroda reiterated his commitment to continue to pursue policies that will push inflation toward the 2% target.

Dollar Index consolidates modest daily gains, remains near 3-year lows

As a whole, commodity prices are mostly lower while US yields in the 0yrs have picked up to 2.55% and the DXY made a high of 90.82, albeit currently back down to 90.64 at the time of writing and enabling the 100-H SMA in WTI t play out its supporting role yet again. 

Markets, in the meantime, await more US data to come this week and indeed, the Energy Information Administration data on U.S. petroleum supplies and products that will be released a day later than usual due to the MLK holiday yesterday. The previous report showed a big dip in US output. The data will come on Thursday. after the American Petroleum Institute data that will release its own figures late Wednesday. However, the foundation to the bid comes in the commitment to output cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and others such as Russia. 

WTI levels

The resistances are aligned at 64.69 (3-year highs) ahead of $ $65 and $ 65.50 (psychological level). On the downside, supports are located at $64 (key support), $63.75, (100-H SMA), $63.50 (psychological levels) and $63.29 (10-DMA). Hourly RSI is holding above negative territory and neutral although 4-hr and daily RSI is correcting lower from overbought territories.

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