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7 Sep 2020

AUD/USD stalemate could continue into business and consumer confidence readings

  • AUD/USD trades just under flat in a lacklustre session.
  • There is some data coming up overnight that could get things moving.

AUD/USD - RBA content for now

At the last RBA meeting, some analyst's had been anticipating the central bank could mention the appreciating Australian dollar. The chart below shows the Australian Trade Weighted Index near its highest level in a year. Overnight there could be some volatility as the market will get the latest Australian business confidence figure. Last time out the reading came in at -14 vs the previous number of 0. Having said that there has been a gradual improvement since the low of -66 following the COVID-19 pandemic peak. Later in the week, the main figure from the US will be the CPI print for August. This will now be in focus as the US Federal Reserve have been suggesting they will accept an overshoot over their old target of 2%. Last week many FOMC members stated a reading of 2.5% would be acceptable before raising rates. Another factor with US rates is the unemployment level and this is currently way above the Fed's target.

AUD trade weighted index

(source Quandl)

AUD/USD 1-hour chart

Looking at the chart, the price seems to have flatlined. From a technical perspective, the price found support at the 61.8% retracement level. Now there has been a price stabilization at the 50% Fib which is close to the black support level at 0.7170. If this uptrend is to continue the green resistance line just above 0.73 is the one to watch. if that level breaks then it is a good indication that the bulls may go on to test the highs. 

Just like the price the technical indicators had flatlined. The Relative Strength Index is holding at the 50 level. The MACD is also static at the zero line with the signal lines both hugging the midpoint. 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

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